Primary forecasts in the Massachusetts Forecasting Tournament

We recently launched a forecasting tournament for Massachusetts elections. You can read more about it here or about forecasting tournaments in general.

With less than a week to go until the primary, we’re rounding up some of the initial predictions made by participants. These are the average probabilities of each candidate winning or result happening. While we don’t know whether these are correct, they serve as an interesting snapshot of what a group of committed #mapoli observers thought in the run up to the primary.

If you disagree with any of these projections, you’re welcome to make your own predictions (or update your existing predictions in light of new info).

Here are the main points for taking part:

• It’s free to play and you can play individually and as a team.

• Teams are up to 10 people and you can be part of as many as you’d like. This is the form to create/join a team.

• There’s $600 in prize money available.

• You can jump directly to the questions here.

Preliminary predictions

These are the average probabilities given by tournament participants on questions about primary elections (probabilities do not always total 100% due to rounding). Predictions were made before Quentin Palfrey dropped out of the Attorney General race.

Question 2: Who will win the Lieutenant Governor Democratic Primary

• Kim Driscoll: 51%

• Eric Lesser: 34%

• Tami Gouveia: 14%

Question 3: Who will win the Attorney General Democratic Primary

• Andrea Campbell: 63%

• Shannon Liss-Riordan: 19%

• Quentin Palfrey: 16%

Question 4: Who will win the Secretary of State Democratic Primary

• Bill Galvin: 80%

• Tanisha Sullivan: 20%

Question 5: Who will win the Auditor Democratic Primary

• Chris Dempsey: 63%

• Diana DiZoglio: 37%

Question 6: Who will win the Governor Republican Primary

• Geoff Diehl: 83%

• Chris Doughty: 17%

Question 8: Who will win the Second Suffolk District?

• Liz Miranda: 38%

• Nika Elugardo: 24%

• Dianne Wilkerson: 16%

• Miniard Culpepper: 13%

Think these are wrong?

If so, make your own predictions and have a chance to win $250 for the most accurate individual predictions, another $250 for the most accurate team predictions, or $100 in the bonus round if you retweet or like our announcement post.